Monday, February 7, 2011

A Longer Term View on USO



 First the 30 min chart which showed us accumulation out of the channel breakdown...

 We see the same on the 15 min chart with recent accumulation on this dip as well.

 The 5 min chart makes it more clear and shows it to be more recent. As I stated when the Egyptian crisis started, "if USO is going to go higher because of tensions in the middle east, expect to see accumulation before they let it go too much higher" meaning they won't be without their shares to sell into higher prices, they won't miss this opportunity (they being smart money).

 Here's the trend Chanel showing two important areas of resistance and support, a break of either should be considered carefully, especially to the upside.

 The daily chart shows that there was a decent base for USO to rally from, it's still big enough to provide support in my opinion.

 Finally when looking at past pullbacks within the context of an uptrend, we have to look at a longer 100 day moving average which supported pullbacks in 2008 while oil was still on the huge Bush/weak dollar rally.

A closer look at the 100-day m.a. reveals price support and good volume coming off that support. I believe the 100-day is the average to watch with the current pullback.

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