Monday, February 7, 2011

SPY Updated chart request

We have some short term traders trading leveraged derivatives of some of the market averages so here's today's report. I've been a little quiet because I ran a scan and am trying to sort through about 70 different charts.

Here's the SPY
 As I mentioned to a reader earlier, it seems the accumulation/distribution cycle hasn't been very committed on the accumulation side, it's been piece meal since we saw that last blast of accumulation over a week ago on that Friday afternoon, most since has been in small pockets that are distributed fairly quickly leading me to wonder if there's something bigger at play here as the reason why they don't seem to be committing to larger positions in a more extended distribution-rally? Also I've noted as I did in a post today that the Bernanke Put or the "buy the dip" mentality has reached a level of giddiness among the bulls who have this market figured out-simple, "Buy the dip". It's this kind of sentiment in which I become very alert and watch very carefully for a change. The pundits claim-this time it's different as the asset bubble continues to build. There's all kinds of people with reasons regarding why this market can't go down and thy seem convincing-at least as it would apply to the averages themselves. However, once again it's that sentiment that always accompanies bubbles-"it's different this time" and there's no shortage of analysis that would lead you to have full faith in confidence in that. This s where the greater fool theory starts to poke it's head out. We have had numerous excellent double-triple digit gains going long and I'm not afraid to do such, just in the right assets. As you saw by my Q's post last night, that risk for a half percent over 15 trading days isn't worth it, a trade like EEE that's made 700% as of today, is worth it. However, this is a time to remain cautious and not fall in love with the propaganda. Earlier today, the 15 minute chart was untouched by negative divergences-they are there now.


 Even the 10-minute above was still in line this morning, not so anymore.

 The 5 min has become noticeably worse and is bleeding into the longer charts. This is where you have to "consider" the idea of a possible false breakout just as we saw a false breakdown in UUP-3C showed the support for UUP even as it broke down, now it's back above support.

The 1-minute chart is looking horrible and has kept prices in check and started some downside.

It remains to be seen if we get the influx of cash from PD's and the unwinding of the Treasury program, but as always it's this type of news that makes the market's rise seem like fate, that you must be more cautious then usual.

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