AAPL Bounce-maybe not

AAPL hit our downside target recently and showed some early signs of accumulation, however the advanced components made in Japan that go into several key Apple products such as the I-phone are now in short supply and the status of factories in Japan is unknown. What is known (as of my last check) is that ports in Japan are shut own, meaning the raw materials that they need for manufacturing aren't getting to factories even if they are open. Japan is a country that has few natural resources and depends largely on the rest of the world to import raw materials for the advance components manufactured there.

AAPL is one of the first I've seen and know to come from Japan, but as I pointed out in my XLK post, technology stocks aren't looking good and Japan's situation may be the root behind that.

Here's the latest on AAPL which is in a very dangerous position technically speaking.

 AAPL very close to breaking any remaining support. Remember that this is a stock that nearly every fund owns. Should there be a mass exodus by funds, the manipulation of top patterns is of very little concern. Once a major fund starts liquidating, they will all follow suit as we recently talked about in the herd mentality of hedge and mutual funds.

 Here's the last 2 days in AAPL, yesterday seems to be when this problem started being discounted as AAPL saw distribution into the local highs. This morning's gap up was hit by a negative divergence and right now is resting near some support, some of the last support before it breaks the top completely.

 The 15 min chart is just as alarming with a leading negative divergence. In fact the 30, 60 and daily are all negative as well. If  was managing a fund, I'd be using any strength to short this stock ahead of the hedge funds as they have massive positions. They need to liquidate a bit more slowly as to not drive prices down too fast. That being the case, I would give an AAPL short serous consideration. The parts manufactured in Japan cannot be rapidly set up in China, these are advanced technologies that China imports to assemble I-phones.

Here's last ditch support and the trend channel stop that will hold a major trend, it held the September 2010 trend up and just stopped out on 3/15. I'd consider adding a larger position below $325.