Tuesday, March 1, 2011

CFW Trade Alert

This is one we played in January and it looks like it's gathering a head of steam. Don't let the price gain through you, with risk management it's all the same.

 Rectangular or lateral movement tends to be areas of accumulation/distribution, especially accumulation as the locals seek to fill at a particular average price. When volume surges like we see today, that's a call to retail traders running volume surge screens as they believe volume surges are smart money buying-they are not, smart money bought long before and is only advertising what retail traders believe to be their buying. This often marks the start of stage 2 "Mark up" in which smart money will slowly distribute their shares into demand as to not effect the delicate supply/demand balance and to get the highest average selling price as they sell into demand.

 The daily 3C chart looks a whole lot like good accumulation. If this base breaks out, it could support a multiple leg move that could see 3 digit gains.. Note TSV confirming n the bottom window.

 The 30 min chart showing another positive divergence at the lows-again, "best average cost basis" and again TSV confirms.

The large triangles as I often say are bases or tops, depending on the preceding trend, this would be a base. A breakout above today's highs looks like a good confirmation zone, but there are many entries including taking it here. My stop would be at the red trendline area -maybe $.33-NOT $.35 as it's too obvious.

Good luck-this sector is still hot and in rotation.

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