Tuesday, March 1, 2011

EEM/FXI Requests


EEM
 Here we have a top, the long term outlook is not good for emerging markets and I've been a critique of long Emerging market positions. It has been the right position as you can see, we do have a downtrend, a bit volatile, but down. Today looks like much of the rest of the market with gaps up that have failed thus far.


 The recent highs in EEM's correction show negative 5 min divergences, there may be some upside or volatility intraday, but it seems there's a distribution cycle underway.

 Here's the intraday positive I mentioned above for intraday gains, it isn't huge, most likely just the typical intraday games. There is a possible negative divergence forming in the red square -short term, which could be meaningful if the daily candle is a reversal candle.

 Here's the stop that has worked-it's tight, but it's worked-I'd have it just above $46 at this point on a short position.

 A wider stop makes more sense to me, but every individual must decide their own risk tolerance.

FXI-China and this one is in a top and maybe a major top. The volatility in the China index is typically caused by the lack of transparency in the chinese economy.

 The downtrend here is clear, so long would have been the wrong side of the trade and this has been a long term favorite short play.

 FXI shows the same bounce that the market overall has shown, now we need to look for the distribution cycle.

 the 10 min chart is showing that distribution cycle, when we hit the 15 min chart, then we'll be close, that could happen today, especially given the daily candle formation today.

Because of the volatility in this market, I'd choose a wider stop and the TC has held the downtrend easily here.

Ultimately, if you can make it through volatility typical of all tops and even more now because of world and economic events, then I think both trades will see much further downside as the tops themselves are yet to be broken so the real downside hasn't even started.

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