The next few days will be important for the Dollar

Sometimes we have events that smart money can't discount, such as the Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami and the resulting monetary policy. It's not often that we see these kinds of shifts, but lately we've seen quite a few.

 A false breakdown is very common these days as are false breakouts, determining if this is a head fake or the real thing will have important implications for many commodities.

 The 5 min chart shows several days of accumulation suggesting this may have been a false breakdown, but they occur at the same time the G7 came to an agreement with regard to Japanese currency, so the chart remains in question.

The most recent information shows only a small positive divergence, not big enough to make any kind of call on yet so watching the dollar this week will be very important.