Monday, March 21, 2011

USO Pullback

I think it's coming, which is also to say that USO is one of the few stocks that is acting somewhat normally and is not getting ahead of itself in upside excesses that are sharply corrected to the downside. A pulback here is normal activity and healthy activity. We want our stocks to trend with pullbacks and not go parabolic creating nasty surprises.

 My moving average screen that helps prevent false crossovers is still flashing a bullish but signal. The first pullback area is to the blue 22-day moving average, although I don't think it's the most likely.

 Here we see 1 min 3C negative divergences in USO which hasn't done much today since the gap up. The 5 min chart here is showing a bit of a leading negative divergence. Thus far USO has been pretty stable in its accumulation/distribution cycles despite world events; I count this as bullish for the upside.

 The 15 min is showing a negative divergence so this is a high probability correction and my guess is that the gap in red will be filled.

 Looking at the more important 30/60 min charts above and below, you can see there was a good deal of accumulation in USO and these charts remain positive.


So my best guess is USO pulls back for a day or two, at that point it will most likely offer a good entry/add to set up.

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