Thursday, April 28, 2011

AMZN FOLLOW UP

AMZN was an earnings trade from April 26. They were down over 6% in AH and I know we had some members book in AH, the next day AMZN is up big, strangely big. Make sure you check out the original post.

 Yesterday I had CNBC on to listen to Bernanke's Q&A and the FOMC results. I left it on in the background as I never listen to CNBC, not even once a month, but I'm well aware of the Cramer Effect. In fact, in early July 2008 I was calling for a top in the multi-year Bush-era run in oil. That same week Cramer came out and told viewers to buy the next bad DOE inventories report, he called it a "Contrarian Play", which I remember as laughable when you have millions of viewers all doing the same thing, how that's contrarian, I have no idea. Well they bought, and I got the oil top right to within a week. Of course I could never prove it, but Cramer is Wall St. Alumni from Goldman. Who's to say he's not helping his buddies exit their longs in oil by creating mass demand for them to sell into? Besides that, we all know if Cramer rec'ds something on his show, the next day that something is up. So yesterday at 3 p.m., Cramer was talking about AMZN and how their miss was no big deal just because they were spending money and that they were going for world domination, etc. At the white arrow, that's when he made his comments, the Cramer effect followed.

 Here's 3C 5 min, with the arrow at the time he made his statement about AMZN, looks a lot like that was used to sell into demand.

 Here's the post earnings move up in AMZN, by now a 15 minute chart should easily be able to confirm that move. I don't know if he talked about AMZN the night before or not, I'm guessing he did.

Here's the line in the sand to watch. If smart money wants out, they need demand to sell massive positions into, that may have happened yesterday. If AMZN crosses below this breakout level then we get the all too familiar "false breakout" and AMZN likely falls, so keep an eye on this area between $188.50 and $191, if it fails, there should be a lot of longs caught at a loss and supply will increase quickly and we know what happens when we have more supply then demand.

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