Thursday, April 28, 2011

Harley Davidson

Take a look at this potential short play. This isn't a trade for someone looking for the quick play, you have to have patience with this one, but it may very well pay off.

I'm looking at the daily chart, 3C tracked the uptrend and confirmed it for nearly a year, at what is similar to a double top, it went negative, meaning distribution at the test of the highs.

 Here we see the top with a VERY well defined support zone. Look at the huge red volume when it broke down through support. It's obvious stops and shorts were all lined up right there. Right now it's corrected through time laterally and is threatening to take out intraday lows.

 For traders who want a tighter stop, this TC has tracked decent size swing moves and you can see where the stop would be. I would position size the trade to take that stop into account in case of a bounce, but this isn't where I see the trade I'd take.

This trend channel tracked the entire trend up and it's turned down, in my experience, stocks don't usually come back from a change in character like this.Th stop is only about $1 higher, but I think well worth it for a trending trade.

No comments: