Thursday, April 28, 2011

VIX/VXX

Today the VIX posted it's lowest closing price since 6/20/2007 at $14.37. The newer VXX posted it's lowest close in its 2+ year history. Remember, extremes in these two indicators have traditionally been turning points in the market with an inverse correlation, meaning an extreme dip in the VIX would correlate with a top in the market. I've used the VIX since 2000, even after it was reworked. The normal range on the VIX for a rally to reverse would be around 20-25 or so and a bottom over 35. These readings are extreme complacency. The last major signal in the VIX was April 2010 when it hit 15.5 about 2 weeks later the market dropped a little more then 16%, that was the last major correction.

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