Monday, July 18, 2011

DUST / NUGT/ GDX - Update

I'm still getting a lot of emails about DUST, Friday system 1 triggered a long in NUGT today, but remember system 1 is the faster system and prone to more false moves.
So lets take a look at the source, GDX, which would be similar to NUGT except without the leverage.

Remember, if you went long NUGT today, the stop-loss is the opening price less 3%.


 Here's the daily GDX chart, there has been good accumulation and a confirmed uptrend, but the daily chart won't respond to changes as quickly as intraday charts. Overall, for the intermediate / long term trend, I remain bullish on gold miners, but that doesn't mean we won't see a pullback as GDX is extended here.

 The hourly chart s showing a negative divergence with distribution starting around July 5th. Remember, a large accumulated position takes time to distribute and it's always in to higher prices.

 The 15 min hart confirms the 60 min chart above with a negative divergence.

 The 10 min chart shows the same.

 Here's the 5 min chart going in to a leading negative divergence today.

 Interestingly, there was a lot of buy side volume today, but it didn't take prices any higher. RSI is negatively divergent as GDX forms a consolidation pattern. As of now, the consolidation pattern has failed with a downside break. I would keep an eye on this pattern for any potential upside reversals or further downside momentum, it could be a tipping point.


The 50-bar 60 min moving average has defined the trend fairly well, a break below this moving average would likely usher in a correction; it would also break a major daily support level.

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