It was just last Wednesday, July 13th that I warned TLT/Treasury Bonds looked like they were in some short term trouble. Being treasuries are a flight to safety trade, if my theory of a market bounce this week pans out, the TLT should see more trouble.
TLT in a major base, and the warning at the red arrow.
Here's what TLT looked like when I posted the warning about a pullback. I rec'd TBT, a Ultrashort 3x leveraged ETF as the trade of choice on a TLT pullback. TBT is up about 5% thus far.
Here was the problem I saw on the 30 min 3 chart, a negative divergence close to resistance.
The 15 min chart confirms the same
Interestingly, I saw this trade as a pullback trade, but my crossover screen is now giving a short TLT signal as all 3 components are just aligning for the short signal to be given.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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