Monday, July 18, 2011

Follow Up on MRX Short Trade

Friday I posted this idea for a short trade in MRX.

MRX, just like many other ideas is a trade that caught my attention because of an upside, failed head fake.
The swing trend was also broken the next day on some of the heaviest 1-day volume of the rally.

3C confirmed the head fake in multiple timeframes, the most important on which was this hourly hart. For a divergence to show up on an hourly chart, the implications are bigger then a pullback.

I said in the post t would be best if the gap was left unfilled, so far that's the case. An unfilled gap in this situation with the extremely high volume is likely a break away gap and they are not very common, but if they remain unfilled, it tells us this is a very serious break. I mentioned  liked the position right there at $38.54.

Here's today's move.
The move down was rapid and it fell right to the support zone marked by support at 2:10 pm on 7/14 and  3:10 pm on 7/14-thus we have a support area in place which MRX could bounce from, a break of this support would be very bearish. There aren't many indications as to what happens next except for the fact that the downside move subsided the over the last 30 mins as the support level was reached. Volume is still light, but volume is often light in a bearish environment, it's not a sign of strength or weakness unlike volume in an uptrend. I would continue to monitor how MRX acts at this support area and don't rule out a downside head fake. I'll be watching too, but this looks like a decent trade thus far.

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