PNFP Follow Up

PNFP was originally listed on my June 15 list of short candidates that should be on your watchlist.

 The daly 3C chart shows accumulation during Q3 2010, distribution during Q1 2011

 The red arrow below price is when the idea was mentioned as a candidate. Note the RSI negative divergence in to the top. I prefer shorting stocks that have broken support of the top, then rallied above it and then break it a final time. These trades are more likely to trend as the volatility of a top breaking is largely over.

 Here's the 3C hourly chart showing a leading negative divergence on the bounce after the intial top break.

 If you prefer to swing trade PNFP until the top is decisively broken again (today it's very close), then  would use the daily trend channel which has been useful as a stop in recent swings. The current stop would be around $15.80.

You can also use swing trend identification. Since the trend down started, the trending candles are in white, the noise candles in red. The current candle (today) is the new signal candle, the swing downtrend would be broken if there was a candle that closed with a low higher then today's closing high.

I would prefer a solid break of support on heavy volume, and a few percent below support. I feel that scenario would be the best situation / setup for a trending move down.