Wednesday, July 20, 2011

GLD/SLV Update

I was curious this morning why we saw such a strong move up in GLD/SLV then a member emailed me this article.

John Taylor is well respected and I think his opinion published had a knee jerk effect on the PMs.

 Here's GLD on a 5 min 3C chart with a bullish ascending triangle, I'd watch for an upside breakout and then whether that breakout has 3C support, which I doubt at this time.

 Here's the daily move in GLD today.

 Here's the daily move in SLV today

 GLD hourly chart is quite negative, I don't know if a knee jerk reaction to an article is enough to overcome the distribution set in play.

 The same goes for SLV on an hourly chart.

 GLD's 15 mn 3C chart showed no accumulation for the move up, suggesting it was a knee jerk reaction to Taylor's piece. Taylor may in fact be correct, I respect the man, however, that does not preclude the possibility of a pullback that seems to already be in motion, nor the depth of that pullback. The red square shows some 15 min weakness.

 SLV 10 min 3C shows the initial reversal of two days ago and a slight negative divergence today.

The 1 min chart looks a bit worse, with the 1 min chart there are generally 3 possibilities, the negative divergence is the start of a larger divergence as they almost always start on the shortest chart and work their way through the longer harts. It can also be a sign of an intraday move, or lastly t can show weakness that will form a consolidation zone.

Because of the knee jerk reaction, the lack of accumulation and the seriousness of the hourly charts, I think the path of least resistance remans down for the time being.

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