Wednesday, July 20, 2011

USO Update-No surprises here

In yesterday's USO update, I started the post with this paragraph,

"Remember the last USO update today, I said there's a possibility for a false breakdown before USO takes off, well that probability just increased."


and


"I can't say for sure if this would simply be a pullback from resistance to gather some more support like we saw in yesterday's decline or whether this is moving toward a downside shakeout, if the downside shakeout occurs, I'm almost certainly a buyer, of course I'd check 3C for a head fake, but the way the market has been manipulating technical traders, this would not at all be uncommon, in fact just the opposite."


So two possibilities, 1) a pullback, 2) a shakeout, either way USO didn't look ready to break out without some downside.


 This is an overall bullish pattern and why I'm bullish on USO in the intermediate term.

 Here's today's intraday decline that I warned of yesterday.

 We have 3 negative divergences in red, yellow and a slight false breakout in green just before the dip in prices.

 Here are the same 3 on a 5 min chart-confirmaton.

If this turns in to more then just a pullback to gather strength before challenging the breakout resistance, this would be the most likely scenario, a break of the flag to the downside, which is accumulated followed by a sharp move up to a breakout.


These two charts are the only thing that suggest the dip was a possible pullback to gan some strength-option 1


 A 5 mn and 15 mn positive divergence on the dip.













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