Thursday, August 11, 2011

Closing Stats

Today was another WOW day and the pendulum continues to provide exceptional volatility. It wasn't too long ago that a 1.5% gain was a big move, now we have the last 4 days down 6.66%, up 4.74%, down 4.42% and today up 4.47%-that's extreme volatility.

As far a internals go, all 30 major Morningstar Groups closed green, of the 239 major and sub-industry groups only 1 closed in the red today, "Closed End Debt Funds".

Certainly CSCO was a major Catalyst as well as Initial Claims coming in better then expected, but I think this has more to do with a bottoming process.

Other Internals: The NYSE had a volume ratio of 5:1 up vs down volume. There were 5832 advancing issues and 1027 declining issues. What was most impressive was today's NYSE dominant Price Volume Relationship, it was Close Down Volume Down like all of the other averages, but in a close second was Close Up/Volume Up, the most bullish of the 4 relationships.

The Dow 30 saw all 30 stocks close GREEN!
The NASDAQ 100 saw all 100 stocks close GREEN
The Russell 2k saw 1862 stocks close green and only 94 close down
The S&P 500 only had 3 decliners!

Of my 5% or greater list, 1920 on the close as for -5%, 127 mostly inverse ETFs.

By most measures exceptionally strong internals.

Also noteworthy were the declines in the safe haven trades, Gold declined over 2%, TLT (Treasuries) lost over 5%. The Swiss Franc closed down 4.69%, but part of that was on talk of a Franc/Euro Peg.

As I expected since the early morning, the inverse H&S seen in all of the major averages broke out and then was gamed in the last 15 minutes to fall below the breakout line. This gives me a gut feeling that we are not done consolidating and Friday wouldn't be the best day to launch a rally, so I'm okay with that, but expect more volatility as  suspect they'll try to lock in short sellers. However, as usual, we'll let 3C and price tell us where this is gong, that's just my gut feeling as I explained late in the day. However I will say the last few day's internals have been very bullish-we just need some volume and that will come when they are ready to kick the market in to stage 2, mark up.

The VIX did close down today, a bullish sign, one more consecutive day down and we would likely see a sharp rally.

I'll be listing quite a few long positions to take a look at buying on a pullback, there are a lot of charts shaping up. I also get a gut feeling that we are in for some market positive news and I feel that when/if we rally as 3C is suggesting, it's not going to be just a bounce but a spectacular move. After that move, I think it'll be the last before the bottom really falls out and makes the last few weeks look like a walk in the park. All of this equals OPPORTUNITY! Just keep your eye on the forest, not the trees. Volatility should remain obnoxiously high so initial stops should be wide, to honor the 2% rule, that means fewer shares, but one a position moves in your favor, stops can be tightened and the position can be added to.

Again, keep your eye on the Forest, not the trees. I see 1100 as important support on the S&P, whether it's tested, who knows, but if it is, I suspect it will be part of the Wall Street gaming and wouldn't jump to bearish conclusions too quickly. Heck, we might even be surprised and just see the market take off from here.

Perhaps above all, use your edge over Wall Street and be patient, I smell incredible opportunities brewing.



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