Thursday, August 11, 2011

Treasuries-

I have been keeping a close eye on the safe haven trades for signs and signals, Treasuries have certainly been a major safe haven trade since the decline started, however, now there are some shifting signals apparent on the charts.

IEF 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund
 Note the accumulation during a flat trading range, also the recent negative divergence on this longer term 30 min chart, an important timeframe for the intermediate trend.

 Here's the same ticker on a 15 min chart, showing more detail in the negative divergence, note also the flat range commonly seen at accumulation/distribution.

TBF Short 20 Year Treasury 
 This of course would give inverse signals being a short on treasuries, you can see several negative divergences leading to lower prices as well as the recent positive divergence, suggesting the flight to safety trade in Treasuries may be coming to an end.

TLT 20-Year Treasury Bond Fund
 I have featured this one several times over the last 3 days as price action has been abnormal, today the safe haven trade is down -2.27%.

 TLT 30 min 3C negative divergence as well as my use of a long term TSV chart. Usually TSV is used in periods ranging from 18 to 28/38, I use a long term setting of 55 to better show the major trend and cut out noise, it too is negatively divergent.

 TLT 15 min 3C chart shows more detail of the negative divergence which showed interesting negative pivots at the new highs areas.

 TLT 5 min shows even more detail and again, note the flat trading range so common to distribution. This is also showing a leading negative divergence.

TMF 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X Leveraged 
You can see 3 of the 4 stages of a trend's cycle, 1) accumulation, 2) mark-up as 3C confirms the price trend by making higher highs with price and 3) distribution-currently underway; stage 4 would be decline.

It seems clear that many of the safe haven trades are now showing signs of trouble ahead in significant timeframes, with good confirmation between timeframes as well as multiple equities.

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