Thursday, September 1, 2011

End of day divergence

This end of day short term positive divergence has still got me wondering because I'm seeing it in multiple places like XLf, XLE, all of the averages.

 SPY 1 min-it's entirely possible that the divergence was just signaling a consolidation rather then a bounce, as you can see momentum to the downside faded during the divergence.

 On most charts it can be found on the 5 min too. So this could imply a bounce or some early strength tomorrow.

Because the 10/15 minute charts deteriorated even more today, I didn't change my holdings and kept my shorts in place.

I could speculate as to a lot of things, such as a solid NFP number tomorrow that gaps the market higher, but then traders realize it isn't good for QE3 hopes and it becomes a "sell the news" event, or it could simply be as I stated under the 1 min chart and have just caused a consolidation. Either way, I don't think it changes much as the 10-15 and even 30 minute charts are too far gone in to the negative leading divergences to change the ultimate outcome.

When I do my research for the nightly wrap I'll see f there's anything else that hints at a cause. However as I often say, a consolidation implied by a short term positive divergence can take place through movement of price (i.e.: a bounce) or simply through time (i.e.: a trading range-which is what we ultimately saw).

Just an interesting little bit of acton that should be resolved tomorrow morning.

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