This end of day short term positive divergence has still got me wondering because I'm seeing it in multiple places like XLf, XLE, all of the averages.
SPY 1 min-it's entirely possible that the divergence was just signaling a consolidation rather then a bounce, as you can see momentum to the downside faded during the divergence.
On most charts it can be found on the 5 min too. So this could imply a bounce or some early strength tomorrow.
Because the 10/15 minute charts deteriorated even more today, I didn't change my holdings and kept my shorts in place.
I could speculate as to a lot of things, such as a solid NFP number tomorrow that gaps the market higher, but then traders realize it isn't good for QE3 hopes and it becomes a "sell the news" event, or it could simply be as I stated under the 1 min chart and have just caused a consolidation. Either way, I don't think it changes much as the 10-15 and even 30 minute charts are too far gone in to the negative leading divergences to change the ultimate outcome.
When I do my research for the nightly wrap I'll see f there's anything else that hints at a cause. However as I often say, a consolidation implied by a short term positive divergence can take place through movement of price (i.e.: a bounce) or simply through time (i.e.: a trading range-which is what we ultimately saw).
Just an interesting little bit of acton that should be resolved tomorrow morning.
No comments:
Post a Comment