Thursday, September 1, 2011

GLD/SLV-"Mums the word"

You may have noticed I haven't commented much on SLV/GLD over the last day or two. 3C is a great indicator that often gives us an advantage, but smart money has to be moving. Sometimes people want  3C charts for certain trades they have on and I have to tell them, "It's just not telling us anything"; this could be because of transition or it could be because smart money simply isn't making any big moves that would show up. When training people with 3C, I tell them, "If the divergence doesn't jump off the chart, if you have to search for it, then it's not a high probability trade"; that's been the case with SLV and GLD lately. I actually just took off a long silver position simply because I didn't see the edge in the trade.

I think correlations on both PM's are still up in the air and as I have noted for several months, this was something I expected to happen. It has happened with gold as the dollar correlation has fallen completely apart.

As you know, I don't consider myself a Guru, if I was then I would have a solid opinion on both that I was SURE of. That's not my job, to promote myself as a GURU, my job is to help you find an edge as a student of the ever changing market.

Any way, here are the charts, you'll see there just isn't a consistent edge to be found on either GLD or SLV so for now, I stay away until there is.

 GLD 15 min, the recent green area doesn't tell us anything about where GLD is going.

 The 5 min charts had some great calls, but again in green, who knows where this s heading?

 The 2 min charts have made some short term calls, but without confirmation in the longer charts, there's no consistency to any call.

 The same applies on the 1 min chart of GLD

SLV
 This chart looks slightly better then inline and things made more sense a few days ago when I put on a long silver trade.

 The 10 min chart s mostly in line, so it tells us nothing about changes in the trend.

 The 5 min chart is negative, but again, without confirmation on other charts, it's just one chart and 3C s meant for confirmation, thus the name "3C"=compare, compare, compare or you could substitute "confirmation"

The 1 min chart is simply in line telling us nothing about the future.

I WILL keep an eye on these charts though and as soon as something develops, you'll be the first to know.


No comments: