Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Market Update Cont.

For all intents and purposes, most of the averages are lateral today except the QQQ, this is a prime distribution price pattern, although it is seemingly because of the Slovakian vote. However, the EUR/USD has rallied pretty much all day -almost a 100 pips

The S&P? +.18% The Dow -.03% The NASDAQ 100 +.86% and the Russell 2k +.31%-essentially flat.

Here are a couple of inverse market correlations.

Treasuries, the bond market was closed yesterday, but it's open today. Treasuries tend to be the flight to safety trade when the market declines.

 TLT 20+ year T's 1 min. TLT is in a 2 day flat trading range, which in this case is a prime environment for accumulation and the 1 min chart is leading positive.

 TLT 5 min is also leading positive and even more so now as this was captured a little after 1 pm

 TLT 10 min leading positive.

 TLT 15 min leading positive

 Compared to where it was on 9/28, the 30 min is also in a positive divergence.

 Only the 60 min is very ugly, but I had made mention of selling in treasuries that looked like a longer term trend after the "FADS" operation twist announcement.

VXX-Volatility that moves inversely to the market.

 VXX 1 min has been leading positive for 4 days, making new highs today, this would imply a rally in VXX and a decline in the market.

 The 2 min chart as compared to the last area of accumulation in late September sending the market lower, it looks quite a bit stronger now at the same level.

 The same is true of the 5 min.

 The 10 min is just starting to come around.

 The 15 min is leading positive

And the hourly is leading positive, but even more so when compared to its last base/rally.

I know we have some wildcards out there, but it's very difficult for me to support the idea of a long position in the model portfolio in general and is VERY hard not to call this a excellent spot for putting on a short.

On the subject of wildcards, AA kicks off earnings after market today. I'll be taking a look at AA now.

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