Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Using Traditional Tools

Her's a few other measures you can watch using traditional moving averages and a few other indicators to track changes of character in the market. Remember to compare everything you can, FX, commodities, treasuries, you never know where you'll find an important indication that others have missed.

 A 50 bar EXPONENTIAL moving average on a 60 min chart has tracked the rally well and acted as support and resistance.

Here's a closer view of today.

You should have access to the intraday NYSE TICK chart, this will often give you early warning of a change in the short term trends.

Make sure to draw some trendlines that define the trend in the TICK chart (Number of NYSE advancing issues minus the number of NYSE declining issues). As you can see, it tracked the 10:30 a.m. bounce well until it started to break below the channel around 11:45 a.m. As you can see below, it's a pretty accurate measure for short term trends. Also watch the readings, the red arrow is neutral at zero, readings below -1000 or above +1000 are significant, at 1250-1500 they are very significant.

Trend in the SPY breaks, however the TICK chart gave slightly advanced warning.

Wilder's Relative Strength (not to be confused with Relative Strength) on a 1 min chart also gives good insight, note the negative divergence in to the EOD trade yesterday as well as the rally this morning, you are looking for negative or positive divergences the same way 3C is used.

MACD Histogram can also work, but you must set the timing to the trend you are following, a daily MACD chart will tell you nothing about an intraday trend, you're better off watching a 1 min chart.

Also trendlines can be used. I prefer to stay away from indicators like Stochastics which can remain pinned at levels of overbought/oversold for far too long and most of the money flow indicators I find worthless, especially On Balance Volume.

I hope that helps.





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