Wednesday, November 9, 2011

USO Update

The DOE inventory will be out before I finish this post, but here's the USO update.

 This breakout from a bearish ascending wedge has been highly suspect and we'll come back to this in  minute, but the level that I consider to be a confirmation of this breakout as a head fake move was and is at $36.50, we're $.12 away from that level.

 The 2 min chart went negative yesterday in to the close and has had no problem confirming this morning's drop.

 As you may remember, all USO timeframes were negative, this is the 5 min

 And the 15 min in a leading negative divergence, even with this drop today.

This is the short on USO, SCO an inverse crude ETF, I commented last Friday that the base is so linear that I would expect a downside breakdown before any move up, which would mean USO would have to breakout as well, the USO breakout from a bearish pattern is highly suspect, so in essence, what was most likely to happen in a bullish case for SCO and bearish case for USO has happened as false breaks are almost always the last thing to occur before a trend reversal. We'll see what the DOE inventories do.

No comments: