Thursday, December 15, 2011

AAPL Update

I still think AAPL will be able to move higher and the higher the better for our purposes of shorting price strength.

As mentioned early today, early morning trade is always deceptive, when I was trading exclusively for a living,  would rarely consider anything that happened before 10:30 to be authentic, there's just too much gaming on the open. If you look at the early ES chart I posted this a.m., the market was up in premarket and evert trader that had to go to work was putting in their limit buy orders and stops, note how ES dropped right off the open, filling orders and then hitting their stops. This is an additional source of revenue for market makers and would be market makers as they not only collect on the Bid/Ask spread, they fade the bounce shorting the open and overing lower and they get additional volume rebates.  As we have moved away from that period, things are becoming a bit more clear.

 AAPL 1 min has posted a couple of positive divergences and note there's a particular area being accumulated around $379.00

 The 2 min chart shows the distribution on the open and then covering and subsequent accumulation, now slightly leading positive.

 The 5 min remains negative.

The hourly provides the bigger picture, it' been leading negative since we first opened shorts last Thursday, note 2 head fakes, the second more extreme then the first and then what happens? A Decline of course. There's a reason we see these head fakes so often before reversals. Longs, and AAPL longs are hard core only second to gold bugs, buy the breakout, shorts are squeezed and then the bottom falls out, longs have to sell at a loss, shorts enter and you get the snow ball effect which causes parabolic drops like the one we see here. The bottom line is AAPL remains a short as long as this 60 min chart is in such heavy distribution, but Wall Street will want to shake the shorts and weak hands and enter again at better pries, I would short any strength well up to the recent highs if we can get it.


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