Thursday, December 15, 2011

CHKP on the short list

If you set alerts on some of the scan candidates, CHKP should have popped off a few minutes ago, it's pretty close to a nice looking short.

 The bottom red zone is the target range, but given the market we may see a move a bit higher, maybe to the top red zone. CHKP would be a candidate for a 3 part staggered entry, maybe 1/3 in this area, add another 1/3 in the higher red zone if we get it and then the last 1/3 on the confirmed break down.

 Here's the 1 min hart which has been 1 negative divergence after another, even this morning it was negative on the open along with the rest of the market.

 The 2 min chart looks a lot worse, it's leading negative, but it should move with the market, albeit probably at a lower relative level of performance.

 The longer term charts are ugly here and this s what makes CHKP a candidate, the October rally high put in a head fake breakout in the first yellow box, remember, these head fakes are almost ALWAYS the last thing to happen in a rally before a trend reversal.

 The 60 min chart has been leading negative through most of the October rally, showing heavy distribution and you can see it has had the head fake break out/reversal to the downside, more then once. We may look for this behavior intraday.


The daily Trend Channel has held CHKP short since the October rally's head fake, so the stop on a closing basis would be around $54.50, you should be able to use that number for you risk management calculations on a staggered entry. Remember, it is NOT averaging down if you planned the entry before you entered, dollar cost averaging is a losing strategy and a response to a failed position, we are not looking to do that with a staggered entry, the difference is the staggered entry was included as part of your risk management before you ever entered the trade.

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