Thursday, December 15, 2011

Market/Euro Update/Trade

Considering the OP-Ex chain, and the fact that I said earlier and I feel the Euro isn't done, I've taken a look and I'm thinking there's a short term trade here.

 I said I thought the Euro would form a triangle today, the SPY has.

 There's not much going on in the short term 1/2 min charts in the SPY (Above and below)


 There's really not much going on in the 5 min either surprisingly

 But the 15 min has shown some recent strength this afternoon, the SPY will follow the Euro.

 Longer term at the 30, the SPY is rolling over, but why shouldn't there be a nice pop to $125 to wash out the weak hands?

Here's the Euro forming the triangle I thought it would, low volume, an excellent place to accumulate quietly.


 Now here the 1 min chart looks better

 The 2 min is leading positive

 So is the 5 min

And as of this afternoon, the 15 min.

I think we're going to get a pop off the Euro which the market will follow, this has been the idea the entire time, it just looks like it may be sharper then expected.

I'll probably add some short term trades using leveraged ETFS like TQQQ, URTY, UDOW or UPRO to see if I can get a quick pop. This doesn't change the short positions in the model portfolio which are longer term trades, but I think there's a good chance off an op-ex surprise, so I'm going to try it out.

Watch for a downside head fake in the triangle, that may be a good sign of a pop coming.

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