Tuesday, December 27, 2011

AAPL Update

 AAPL head fake, this is a bull pennant and in technical analysis DOGMA it is expected to break out to the upside, so it looks like we are seeing technical traders manipulated once again if this downside break holds, it is the opposite of what technical traders expected to happen.

 Note also the 3C distribution in to a flat price trend, often a marker of a distribution environment.

 The 15 min chart shows the accumulation that I was talking about when I said AAPL would bounce, now look how far it's gone leading negative in 1 day.

AAPL was a candidate for a phased in trade, 1/3 at one point, 1/3 if we saw higher prices and the final third on a confirmed break below the red trendline, it still gives you plenty of downside. So if I was entering a new AAPL position, I might take 1/3 here. For existing positions that have a little more to fill out, I'd wait for confirmation on the break of the trendline, a few % is a bargain for the confirmation, of course AAPL is not an island unto itself, so you want to see the market breaking with it.

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