Tuesday, December 27, 2011

USO Update... Possible intraday fade

USO s seeing strength on some dollar weakness, we'll have to see if the dollar has stabilized here, if so, USO looks like it's overdone it to the upside a bit and may offer a decent day trade with something like SCO long.


 Here's a bullish ascending wedge, the implication would be for an upside breakout and that happened, no head fake, unless that upside breakout becomes the head fake and in that case, the long SCO trade would make sense to fade the USO move up today.

 Short term there's some profit taking/distribution coming in to play here.

 The 5 min chart has been much more negative on the larger trend.

 As has the important 15 min timeframe which showed a positive divergence near the lows and now a leading negative near the highs, nearly a complete cycle.

The 30 min Trend Channel has held the trend so a break below $38.50 may be the area you might want to look at SCO long to fade this early move up. Or the other area to watch would be the apex of the ascending triangle around $38.75, a move below that may also show a failed breakout and usually filed breakouts retrace very quickly. Right now the question is has the dollar found some support?

No comments: