Tuesday, December 27, 2011

RIMM Update

As you know, I have held my RIMM calls since earnings disappointed because there has been a strong leading positive divergence in the 15 min 3C chart, sure enough, RIMM bounced back or is at least bouncing back.

 RIMM has now retraced more then 62% of the gap from earnings, the 62% level is in white, the 100% level is in green.

 You can see by the trend line that RIMM is close to filling the gap, volume has been low, but this early thus far, it looks like volume is on track to be higher then the last several days, often accumulation occurs in flat price ranges on low volume, unlike what many technical analysts think about volume spikes. Think about it, why would smart money announce to the world they were buying and drive costs up against their accumulated position while they are still filling it out?

 RIMM is looking a little parabolic right now and a pullback would be healthy for the stock.

 You can see on the 5 min 3C chart the accumulation in the flat trading range that had low volume, we also have a leading positive divergence now as well.

 The 15 min chart is what kept me in the trade despite a sizable gap down after earnings, however now we are seeing the 30 min chart move in line which is positive as the strength from short term charts is bleeding in to longer term charts.

 The 60 min chart has a huge positive relative divergence and is now leading positive, a huge improvement as RIMM has largely been off on its own ignoring the market in many ways. It seems something may be going on there.

 The 60 min Trend Channel has tracked the downtrend, it is now long and holding the uptrend including consolidations, ADX below turned down from above 40 signaling the end of the downtrend and is now moving up signaling a stronger uptrend.

Look at RIMM compared to AAPL, and AAPL is the stock that would be used to manipulate the NASDAQ 100/QQQ higher because of its weight. For now, I'll keep holding RIMM, a pullback would be nice to wring out any overbought excesses on an intraday basis.

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