NASDAQ Update

I was just trying to get the NASDAQ 100 breadth indicators loaded, they take a while.

 One of the last thing we almost always see before any kind of reversal either up or down is a head fake move because it acts like a kick start in getting reversal momentum going. For instance, the Dow has already made a nice head fake move that will get longs to buy, when a reversal comes those longs are at a loss and their selling helps to push the downward momentum as supply overwhelms demand. This has been going on for years, it used to be that double bottoms made a shallower second bottom, now a double bottom almost always makes a new low on the second bottom as a shakeout, it pulls in the shorts seeing a new low and reverses and the short squeeze propels upside momentum, it's the same with upside reversals, but there has to be a technical area that is obvious to get longs buying and shorts covering. A move above the 200 day moving average such as the Q's pulled off today would be one such trigger. Have you noticed it's been the Q's and the IWM showing upside momentum today while the S&P and DOW have been pretty close to unchanged, around +.20%, both have already made breakout levels that would attract the longs.

 Volume in the market is fading, but the S&P has hit a couple of good levels, 1) above the 200 day and 2) above the downtrend line.

 The IWM had no such technical feature, I don't know if it can make the 200 day, but that would be one area, or the recent resistance area may be a more plausible area.

 After the Q's poked above the 200 m.a. the afternoon new high saw a 3C distribution signal.

 The 10 min chart has shown distribution throughout, which is what we speculated this entire bounce would be used for BEFORE it even started.

Here's a NASDAQ 100 breadth indicator showing breadth looking fairly bullish right until it broke out above the 200 day, then breadth on the advance/decline ratio fell off

 In the short term recently this afternoon, look at the difference between stocks above and below their 50-bar moving average, at the second higher high, the ratio went more negative.

 As has intraday momentum.

The count of % new highs also fell off as the NASDAQ 100 was making new highs on the day.

Finally the NASDAQ along with most of the other averages is looking very bearishly wedgey.