Tuesday, February 7, 2012

AEO Follow Up

This was another trade idea (short) from Feb. 2 that we were just waiting for the set up

I think we are pretty close to where we want to be on this one.

 The last two days have broken below the pivot, although the highest probability trade is on a close below $13.70, I think it probably doesn't make too much difference as you have a little advantage here on placing a stop just above $14.50, an even tighter stop can be used with a close above $13.95 or so.

A break below the red trendline should send this one on the next leg lower and with a breakaway gap in place, this is a very bearish chart. My personal preference would be to treat this as a swing trade just until we see what the trend looks like on the downside and see what stops would work best in a trending situation, thus far we just have a nasty break, but no indication of what the down trend would look like.

Again, you can either wait for a break below the trend channel and have a higher probability trade (although I like the probabilities here) or enter around this area and have a tighter stop with less risk, or you can split the difference. Either way, that's a nasty break from the uptrend and a rare break away gap, very bearish looking

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