Tuesday, February 7, 2012

IRE Update

 IRE's pullback still looks reasonable at this point, it hasn't done any technical damage, it's healthy for stocks to pullback/consolidate so they don't become overbought and see a sharp correction that can feed on itself. My guess would still be that it corrects through price or time and meets the rising 10-day yellow moving average or in the area.

 Since 3C signaled the pullback, the 5 min chart is now showing some hints of accumulation starting in the flat area yesterday, the green arrow is 3C in line with price movement, but in the white area, that's a positive divergence just as there was a relative positive divergence on today's opening lows. We are just starting to see the hints of a more powerful leading positive divergence, but it's still very early in forming.

I would still stick with the daily Trend Channel, this is a custom indicator I designed, actually inspired by the Turtle Traders. The channel is unlike an envelope channel which is a fixed width or Bollinger Bands which can show enormous volatility, instead the Trend Channel looks at each individual stock it is applied to and self adjusts to that stock's recent volatility and allows a certain standard deviation from the average volatility of that stock, in a long trade, a close below the bottom channel is a stop. The Channel is also designed to maximize profits as it continues to lock in gains, for instance, yesterday the channel was at $6.44 and today at $6.63, nearly 3% locked in overnight and it will continue moving up today, by the time price were to reach it, it would likely be close to $7.00 and being we entered the trade at $6.27, it's already locked in a guaranteed profit. It allows enough room for consolidations so the stock is not stopped out on a normal consolidation, but if the stock's behavior deviates more then the multiple standard deviation of the stocks normal volatility, a stop out will occur, which also tells you the character of the stock has changed and likely the trend will as well.

For now, we have the beginning of what we expect to see on a pullback, so I don't see any red flags yet.

I will say the Cats and Dogs that were rallying hard yesterday, are not doing so today, at least not in the same industry groups-shipping and biotechs. I will check around and see if there's been rotation in the C&D stocks.

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