Tuesday, February 7, 2012

USO Update

 USO daily has benefitted from a stronger Euro/weaker dollar on this morning's Greek news

 Intraday there's a consolidation with volume confirming, it however is a descending triangle rather then the continuation (bullish) ascending triangle.

 The 1 day Trend Channel has held fine, although as I have mentioned, I prefer the wider 2-day as a stop.

 The X-over screen saw 1 false crossover which was not confirmed (red box) and then a recent cross-over which is a short signal. More importantly, the first pullback is usually to the 10-day moving average in yellow, which is where we are today. I mention this because I have been asked about USO as a swing trade, we want to short in to strength and today provides that.


 Today's 3C action in USO would suggest this is a pullback and nothing much larger then that.

 The longer 60 minute chart which is why I have been bearish on USO has had no damage done to it and continues to trend lower.

On the swing screen, the red candle is the short swing trade, white candles are noise, the recent long legged Doji from Friday suggested a pullback , which we have seen. That same candle is also the pivot, so a stop out on the trade wouldn't come until at the very earliest tomorrow and only if it posted a low higher then Friday's high.

All in all, with the strength today and the larger trend, it doesn't look like a bad swing entry here. There's also SCO/DTO which could be bought for more leverage or options (Puts) could be used, I'd prefer a few months out for a swing trade so the time decay isn't as bad.

No comments: