Here it is and they are correct...
The unknowns and the political as well as financial backlash are setting in with a German and French populace that are soon to be going to the polls. Eight months ago Merkel was losing support in regional voting, losing. It looks pretty clear at this point that Sarkozy will lose and will be replaced by a president who wants to renegotiate and over turn just about everything Germany, France and the EU task masters generally, have agreed upon.
We already know as I've pointed out as does this article, that the rescue package that Greece is trying to obtain is already too small since it was agreed upon last October, the Greek economy has shrank faster then the Troika thought and the bailout is insufficient. The debt restructuring which we haven't heard much about lately is filled with unknown outcomes, will a sufficient number of bond holders agree to losses or will Greece need to apply retroactive Collective Action Clauses to force creditors to accept the terms. Then what does that mean for the other PIIGS once such a precedent is set? Will the hedge funds that have been buying Greek debt in hopes of taking legal action to make a profit by recovering full par succeed? What happens when Merkel and Sarkozy are thrown out and the German tax payers are on the hook for all of the Greek aide to date and a new set of leaders decides to end the great experiment called "saving Greece" with the aide already handed out amounting to 30-50% of German GDP? "IF" this is successful or even if it is not, a precedent has been set, what stops Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy from seeking similar treatment?
If there ever was moral hazard, we are looking at it.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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