AAPL Update

What we want to see in an AAPL head fake move or in the averages like the SPY or QQQ is strong price action and weak underlying action.

A smaller scale example would be when the FXP trade idea was first floated on 2/29, we had weak price action in that it broke the consolidation pattern's support and posted an ALL TIME new intraday low, however the underlying action was positive showing that the low was a head fake move being used to shakeout longs so the shares could be accumulated by the pros just before the FXP breakout. This example is the exact opposite of what we want to see in AAPL/SPY or QQQ.

Strong underlying action in 3C on the date FXP put in its head fake shake out.

Or maybe a more appropriate example would be the GLD head fake move, which was predictable a day or two before it even started.

Here's the GLD short (via puts) that made nearly 215% in days.

At the red arrow, there were already signs on 3C underlying weakness, I said on that day, "GLD will need to break resistance to sucker in the longs to create a head fake move. The very next day at the orange arrow that happened and at the yellow arrow, GLD posted a new closing high on the move, all the while the underlying trade was falling apart.

GLD since the first breakout above resistance, note the underlying trade falling apart, even as GLD made a new closing high, the next day was the -5.3% loss which was a huge move for GLD.

So now lets take a look at how AAPL is progressing...

 AAPL leading negative as it moves higher today and a sharp move.

A longer view of the same timeframe... AAPL weakness was present right in to Monday's -2.2% head fake move, which was only a small intraday head fake breakout from a consolidation triangle. With AAPL near the same area today, look at how much lower 3C is, this is what we want to see, whether it be a bearish head fake move or a bullish like FXP.

Longer term... AAPL is in a leading negative position and leading negative today specifically.

And even longer term (60 min)...

The green arrow is uptrend confirmation, then a sharp negative at the 15th and an overall declining 3C negative divergence which saw the 60 min just turn down today, this is the shorter term weak charts feeding in to the longer term charts.

So far, so good.