AAPLUpdate

So far AAPL is doing what I thought, it's not been very strong thus far, even the reversal candle 4 days ago was bigger, but AAPL is at intraday resistance so it could still post a bigger candle, volume is pretty thin for this kind of a breakout move thus far. If you look at the other averages, you can see why I chose AAPL as the bellwether, the averages are very mixed, the IWM is down .44%, it may be because it doesn't have the same chance of positing a breakout move being the biggest laggard, the DIA is at +.18% and not moving much thus far, the SPY is down -.16% and the Q's are  down -.29%, but AAPL has a +1.10% move.

 This is the intraday resistance I mentioned, there may be some buyers waiting to see if that earlier intraday high is broken before stepping in as the rest of the market is mixed. If we had strong gains in the market averages along the lines of AAPL's today, I would think AAPL would have already pushed through this level.

 The concept here is no different then the GLD head fake trade we did a week or so back, price strength with underlying 3C weakness. GLD posted a local new closing high even after it broke out from resistance (which is what we expected the day before it happened) and the next day GLD was taken down hard. Again this is the point of a head fake move to set up a reversal, the longs that are trapped become fuel for the downside move and GLD made quite a move of over 5% in a day. The concepts are all the same, the only difference is this is on a larger and more important scale.

 AAPL 2 min, should have had enough time to catch up, so it's showing a little more weakness here at the same relative price level from early this morning.

 The 5 min chart with the positive divergences for the bounce and you can see the underlying weakness as AAPL moves higher.

The 15 min chart shows the same underlying weakness, although the 15 min hasn't turned down yet and could add a little more upside, it should still form a diagonal descending divergence as the price action would be lateral. So far so good. There are some short term trades I've been thinking about, but each move like this is unique and unpredictable, I'm a little hesitant to enter positions of any size right now. I am going to take a look through the watchlist though and see if anything really stands out beyond the uncertainty here.