If you recall the theory of AAPL laid out last Sunday, one of the things I was looking for on an AAPL breakout was TLT to head toward the bottom of its recent range and on the breakout, start to be accumulated, that would signal that professionals were reaching for the flight to safety trade.
As AAPL breaks out this afternoon, take a loo at treasuries (I know there can be more then 1 reason for this, but this is part of the idea).
TLT is exactly where I thought it would be when I first published my AAPL theory, right at the bottom of the range.
TLT's inverse relationship with the SPX (white) is not so apparent today as TLT is up, not much, but gapped up, pulled back and then...
Here's the pullback expected in treasuries, and a 15 min positive divergence...
Late day as treasuries stop falling and start flattening out, a positive divergence.
The same on this 2 min chart which is actually leading.
And the 1 min chart. Since I doubt it is likely that the F_O_M_C announces QE3 tomorrow, I don't think this is as much related to that as it is the expectation that there would be a flight to safety on the AAPL breakout, which we already saw in today's sector rotation.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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