Boiling a Frog

The S&P-500 had its first week in the red for the year. Interestingly, just as treasuries seemed they were set to be the most hated asset, TLT posted a nice weekly close at nearly 3%. You may recall in my "market head fake" theory, treasuries were to be accumulated as one of the signs and despite all of the talk of how treasuries were about to fall off a cliff, they rally for their best week of the year, and why? Almost certainly a flight to safety trade. I should mention that Goldman issued a long equities call and a sell on treasuries this week, if you think they were wrong because they are out of touch with the market, think again, they needed to create supply in treasuries and demand in equities and you see how the week ended.

ES rallied just enough today to close the day session gap from 3/22, gap filling is what I suspected this rally was about and I didn't find it all that surprising as I noted last night, the market's advancers/decliners was so extreme yesterday tat usually it creates a short term oversold condition (which usually lasts about a day.

As for AAPL, I've had a lot of positive email feedback since I said late in the day that the big volatility moves have been on the gap, this is true for the rally and was true for the market this week on the move down on the 22nd. It seems to me, while the market moves lower, they use the day session to keep the conditioned (I almost said brainwashed) "buy the Dip crowd" hopeful and buy the dip they did, all the way to the year's first red close.

Here's an example-note the volatility on the gaps down where stops can't protect you from large losses, yet they still throw a bone of hope to the BTD crowd. This is what I would call "Slow boiling the frog".  You may have heard of this, if you throw a frog in a boiling pot of water, it jumps out, but if you slowly raise the temperature... Boiled frog!

I'll be back later with the internals and other interesting tidbits.