Friday, March 23, 2012

New Home Sales, the Latest Miss

The only economic data out today, New Home Sales, just missed.


Released On 3/23/2012 10:00:00 AM For Feb, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Home Sales - Level - SAAR321 K325 K315 K to 345 K313 K
It not only slipped from the prior, but missed consensus, coming in below the lowest estimate in the consensus range.

In addition, January's .9% fall was revised to a whopping 5.4% M.o.M decline, the worst decline in 13 months and the biggest downward revision since 2009.

I don't know what most people know about the propaganda machine's take on the economy, better known as CNBC, I only know what I heard after the last F_O_M_C announcement when I was too busy to run in the room and turn off the TV after the announcement. What I heard on that particular day was how great the economy is, things are roaring back to life, etc, etc and they made some comment about an economic report (I don't recall which one, but I posted my disdain that day upon hearing it) that came is "very strong, stronger then expected" earlier in the day, the particular report was at consensus, it was at what was expected, it was stronger then expected.

We know have 12 of the last 14 economic indicators at a miss.

From David Rosenberg yesterday,

"It is truly amazing how many people out there believe the economy is improving just because the S&P 500 managed to get to 1,400 this past week. The market doesn't always get it right.

But a look at the data flow suggests that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.

Much emphasis is being put on the employment data. Outside of that, only auto sales really managed to surpass expectations regarding the U.S. data flow that has been released since the start of the month.

Meanwhile, personal income, consumer spending, ISM, net trade, NFIB, IBD/TIPP economic optimism, industrial production, NAHB, housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and now, existing home sales, all came in below consensus estimates. So 11 indicators have missed, just 2 have beat, and supposedly we have some sort of nifty growth spurt going on. Incredible."


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