Tuesday, March 27, 2012

GLD Update/Trade Management

Yesterday as GLD saw one of its biggest moves in two months, I posted an update with some potential stops as GLD was hitting several areas of resistance and showing short term 3C distribution. Ever since the GLD idea (long) last week, I have considered this to be a short term trade, maybe lasting as long as a swing.

Here are the updated charts and what I like and what I'm concerned with. Perhaps tonight we'll look at the longer term view of GLD as we haven't looked at that in a week or so.

 Here's GLD on a daily chart today hung up as I suspected with numerous moving averages in the area as resistance (20/100/200 day s.m.a.)

 To give you perspective, on this 30 min chart you can see the 215% head fake trade, GLD put in a pretty strong positive divergence and is currently leading a bit in this area. This chart I like and suggests that GLD has the base to add to its gains, however a pullback in this area, even after yesterday's move puts GLD very close to our entry point.

 GLD showing a good example of a head fake below support which was accumulated on the 15 min chart, but the recent action of yesterday has GLD looking like it's due for at least a correction, the conflict I have is from the start I only expected a short term move up, a nice move, but not a long lasting move.

 The 5 min chart also shows a good base, again with the head fake/shakeout below support being accumulated and a relative negative divergence yesterday.

 The 2 min chart from the shakeout's accumulation, then some confirmation at the green arrow and a relative negative divergence in to yesterday, I would think this probably has to do with profit taking as trades knew the 100/200 ma's were coming in to play in the area.

 Today's intraday move thus far.

 This is the hourly stop that I posted yesterday, it would allow for a small consolidation and preserve some profits.

 This tighter 30 min would not allow for much of a consolidation, but would preserve more profits.

Depending on where you entered and how you feel about the trade, the daily stop would allow for a decent correction, I would guess from where most people may have entered, it would put the trade at about break even if it were stopped out here.

We'll continue to monitor GLD intraday for any changes that may be material.

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