IPGP Trade Idea (Short)

This i one to keep on the radar, I don't usually like shorting H&S tops in this area because the first break of the neckline usually sees a volatility shakeout back over the neckline so you need a pretty wide stop, but if the market is tanking with it, we may get away without the volatility shakeout, or you can just keep it on a watchlist and keep an eye on it for opportunities.

 It has the look of a H&S top, RSI is negative in to the head and volume dropped off as it made its high. Volume then picked up coming off the right side of the head and there was no volume on the right shoulder advance. I threw together a quick cumulative volume indicator in the price window so you could see the volume action more easily.

 On the 60 min chart you can see 3C didn't follow price lower in the white box, it was leading positive there (accumulation) , however you can see the distribution clearly in to the run higher. Locals take large positions, they can't exit them in a day without sending price against them so they sell in to strength as you can see above. 3C is leading negative at the right shoulder so I would guess this quick cycle (stage 1) accumulation, stage 2) mark up, stage 3) distribution/top and stage 4) decline) is probably being shorted by the locals at this point getting ready for stage 4 decline.

The 30 min chart confirms the 60 min

 Here the short term 2 min chart looking at the right shoulder, you can see some accumulation at the neckline and distribution in to the right shoulder top and a leading negative position now.

 This is the 1 min chart intraday for the last few days, the divergence has sent IPGP mildly higher, still this is only a 1 min intraday chart.

The Trend Channel held the uptrend and broke at the red arrow. I prefer wide stops on initial entries, but I'm guessing the top of the Trend Channel now would be about right for a stop, of course the closer IPGP can move toward that area, the less risk there is in the trade, or you might wait for a break of the neck line. If you are interested in how IPGP is progressing on the intraday chart, just email me.