Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Another Quick look at AAPL

As you know, I think AAPL is the key to the market.

We expected AAPL to underperform and then to be the last sector to rotate in. Look at the move in AAPL Today!

 Here's the AAPL 15 min chart that convinced me AAPL WOULD make the move. This chart is still holding up.

 The short term 1 min shows distribution has already started, the 2 min chart is interesting.

 Note how we have confirmation early in the AAPL move today? Then we have a strong leading negative divergence. This is pretty simple to explain, there's an average accumulated position, apparently around the $600 mark, they can't start distributing until AAPL moves above their average accumulated position, this is why VWAPs are so helpful. After price is above that position and they have profit to cover the expense of the accumulation in to lower prices, they are free to start selling shares or shorting them. This gives you some idea of what the average accumulated position was.

As always, the short term chart's damage flows to the longer term charts, the 2 min is damaged badly and it is starting to show on the 5 min as AAPL didn't see a 3C higher high with price.

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