Tuesday, April 17, 2012

GDX quick look...

 This is a 5 day chart of GDX, obviously this looks like a huge top and long term I don't like it.

In the near term, what has GDX done? The same as usual, a break of support, which up until this point has reliably led to a volatility shakeout. GLD is insane, one day it's a flight to safety the next day it's doing something else, but there's is a chance that a break in the market may produce a knee jerk flight to safety in GLD and related sectors like mining.


 Short term GDX looks like a pullback here, I would not be a buyer right now.

 Same on the 2 min chart

 As well as the 5 min chart

 The 15 min chart is in line, but here is where it gets interesting.

 The 30 min has a strong leading positive divergence, all collected BELOW the break of support, again suggesting a volatility shakeout back above what is now the resistance level of that large top looking formation. I suspect the red area is a small base as GDX seems to have been accumulating in this area.


The hourly chart looks decent, it is not seeing the same amount of strength the 30 min chart is, but remember that the faster or shorter timeframes bleed in to the longer ones.

If I am long GDX or considering it, I want to leave a little room on the stop just below the consolidation area in case of a typical head fake downside shakeout before a reversal up. This is not my favorite trade and I'd much rather be a buyer on short term accumulation, but if you are in, that is what I would be looking at as far as risk management goes. The support for this consolidation is around $46 so I'd have preferably an end of day stop that is a bit lower than $46. If/when GDX pulls back to the bottom of the range, we will want to check the short term charts for accumulation and especially on a break below $46 as that could very well be the typical head fake move we se before an upside reversal. Longer term, I wouldn't expect a trending trade here, you saw the 5 day chart. The best I think GDX would give is a sharp volatility shakeout of the shorts, which could very well be worth trading.

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