Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Market Update

Last week starting on Wednesday, but it really became clear on Thursday, the DIA and SPY were as you know, showing positive intraday divergences, which led me to believe we would see a sharp, but brief bounce up. Friday was the start for the SPY and DIA and Yesterday for the Q's and IWM which were much messier charts. So thus far, what was expected has happened, the other thing I wondered about yesterday was a divergence between the SPY/DIA and the IWM/QQQ as the first pair outperformed Friday while the second pair didn't move Friday, that has come to pass. So here's the update, the DIA/SPY charts have been much clearer then the QQQ/IWM.

 The longer term 1 min trend in the DIA is a good example of what I meant when I said last week's Monday/Tuesday bounce did a lot of damage to the charts when they came down with negative divergences and this bounce would be starting from a weaker place (3c trend), you can see 3C hasn't moved close to last week's bounce, which itself was already in a negative position.

 Here's the close up since yesterday in the DIA 1 min

 The DIA 2 min with last week's mid week positive divergence and a leading negative divergence now.

 A longer term trend of the 5 min chart showing just before last week's Monday/Tuesday "Bernaki-Bounce". Note the leading negative divergence, again what I meant by "Starting from a much weaker place."

 The 15 min between last week and today is hitting a new leading low.

 IWM which has been a much messier chart, I feel that the underlying 3C action is the worst in the IWM. Here's the 1 min from yesterday to present

 The longer 2 min trend from just before the Berni-bounce of last week until now, leading negative, but this was also what I expected to see when I said a "sharp, but brief bounce".

 The IWM 5 min probably doesn't need much explanation.

 QQQ which saw the accumulation stage last week very mixed and choppy, not clean like the DIA/SPY, 1 min is leading negative from yesterday

 the 5 min showing last week's negative divergence on the Berni-bounce, mid week accumulation (it's a bit clearer on a 5 min chart) and the negative divergence now.

 This is another good example of what I meant by "A weaker place" between the two bounces, the 30 min chart in a leading negative position.

 SPY 1 min from yesterday to present.

 The 1 min longer term trend

 2 min from yesterday to today

 5 min  is now leading negative

And again, what I meant about a weaker place between the two bounces, I think it's clear when comparing price peaks and 3C peaks at the same relative areas.

The ES chart is just captured so this is the most recent.

I recaptured this chart as it is only 1, the first one of several minutes ago was leading negative, price has caught up on the downside, over all though it is still longer term leading negative.

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