Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Quick Look at the change in character

I'm using the DIA/Dow-30 as an example...

 The DIA intraday 1 min chart shows a rounding top. This is what I love about the markets, they are emotionally driven, therefore they are fractal in nature, what you see on a 1 min chart, you see on a daily or monthly chart. For example, it's rare to see a dead stop, u-turn "V" reversal, more often they take the shape of rounding reversals and I believe that is because the positions in the institutions that move the market are so large, they can't turn on a dime. The only thing that creates a "V" is a fundamental unknown like 1987, 2001, etc. In any case, several intraday support levels have been broken, we tend to see bounces usually after they are broken rather then at support. The white arrow should be an important one for local action.

 Remember, Brief, but sharp" and although this move may not look very parabolic, it's gains were and thus far the losses have been.

 That has been the same situation with each of the last 3 bounces, the gains are parabolic, there's a "U" shape and the losses have been parabolic. Look at the size of this bounce compared to the last two... "Brief, but sharp".

Since the New year, I have felt that the pullback in the market in early March was a significant event. It didn't pullback much over 3 days, only 1.7%, but the moves on the way up were so small that this one pullback put over a month of longs at a potential loss, that tells you something about the volatility on the rally (it was persistent, but very small gains). It also tells you something about right now, the volatility has picked was up, which is something we see at tops frequently and the trend has become lateral. I still find it amazing, the market use to move 1.7% in a day and that was an average decent day, now it can take out a month of longs? In any case, changes in character precede changes in trends.

No comments: