Wednesday, May 30, 2012

USO Update

As I mentioned, I'm pretty well hedged for the core shorts in the equity model portfolio, but I'm not opposed to going after a few spec trades with options. It really doesn't matter what I choose to do, options, leveraged longs, regular longs, the point is the asset and something seems to be going on with oil/USO. I'm not ready to commit to a new trade there, but I will be watching it very closely for continued improvement, this is out of the ordinary.

 USO 1 min at 11 a.m. is flying in a positive leading divergence.

The longer 15 min chart shows USO in a longer term overall good position as this entire divergence is leading positive and quite large. To fulfill the divergence, the EUR/USD would HAVE to move up.

The point being, all of the long term shorts we build positions in from March to May were done in the same manner, the longer term strategic view was very bearish, we just waited for price strength and an ugly negative divergence in to that strength to start the shorts or add to them.

This is the exact opposite as a long trade, the strategic view on the 15 min is very positive, price is low and we are seeing the start of a huge leading positive divergence. This is the exact same way we entered all of those shorts that are profitable and entered them at low risk/high probability areas. Being this is a speculative long, you just flip the divergences and we have the mirror opposite position now. Just as we shorted in to price strength and 3C weakness, USO is showing what may turn out to be a good buy spot at price weakness and 3C strength.


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