Thursday, June 28, 2012

GLD Charts-Reason for exit of put position

Firs of all, the market's character dictates a lot of the trading strategies. We are in a choppy market, take look at even the shortest of moving averages...
A 5 day average is pointing down, a 10 day is nearly flat and a 22 day is flat. There's virtually no short term trend whatsoever.

Apply the same to GLD...
At least the 5 and 10 are pointing down, the 22 is flat or trendless. For me, this means I need to adjust my trades to the market's mood. For the overall market it is telling me, "Unless you are trading with the primary trend, you need to be very nimble". If a 22 day average is flat, you can't really expect a trade to hold for more than a few days before you get some chop. This is all part of what we talked about back on 6/1 and 6/4, (the market is going to become increasingly volatile and increasingly unpredictable until it snaps and the primary trend asserts itself.)

 So the July GLD $155 puts are only a few days old, I saw 1 small bounce coming, but wasn't worried and held through it. Now I see something that looks a little more serious. There's a nearly 48% gain in 3 days or so, I always think of the saying, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered".

 Here's a GREAT indicator that has been consigned to the dustbin of Technical Analysis in favor of the newest trendy indicators, this is simple Rate of Change (ROC). I can almost guarantee you that if you take virtually ANY indicator, use it as a divergence indicator rather than what it was originally designed for and apply ROC to the indicator and use the ROC signals, that indicator will be 200% more useful and you'll be seeing things that no one else is seeing. What I see is a huge change in the ROC of GLD's price.

"Changes in character precede changes in trends"

 Longer term...

 GLD's 1 min 3C chart has been leading positive all day, it has migrated...

 Th 2 min chart is seeing the same leading positive and this has migrated....

 The 3 min chart is leading. These are about the extent of the intraday indicators in my mind. Around 5 mins you start getting in to signal that can affect the trend from day to day.

While the 5 min chart is not positive, it is nearly perfectly in line with price. With the shorter charts seeing positive divergences and the 5 min not showing anything negative, I'd rather not take the chance.

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