Thursday, June 28, 2012

Update with charts

Here's a look at the end of day positive divergence similar to yesterday's, even though the overall analysis suggested very strongly that the market pulls back today.  I'll also show you why I think this is a constructive pullback, but also why I'm not ready to say it's over (it's only been a day).

 DIA 1 min positive and has been in a leading position all day, this latest low picked up a stronger divergence.

 The same thing happened in ES.

 The IWM 2 min shows the divergence the best, the IWM is often the leader of risk-on moves.

 The QQQ divergence alone would not have me posting an update, but there is something there and taken with the other averages, I thought it worth posting. Note this is a 2 min chart.

 SPY 1 min also shows a slightly stronger divergence at the late afternoon lows with a leading element.

Here is the rest of the analysis.

 The SPY 5 min barely went negative yesterday, that suggested to me that the divergence really wasn't that strong, meaning there wasn't HEAVY distribution. The fact the 5 min chart has been able to hold in a leading positive position today rather than move down and confirm price (in line), is in line with what I expected from a pullback yesterday. In essence, yesterday a.m. when I posted a market update, I thought it was highly likely we would see a pullback. I also explained that it is VERY rare to see smart money chase prices higher, this is why I was/am looking for positive divergences in to a pullback or even a consolidation.

As to why I'm not prepared to say,"This is the end of a pullback", when the 5 min chart is zoomed in to show intraday action, I expect to see charts like this show VERY positive intraday divergences such as a new leading high as well as migration through the short to longer term timeframes. I don't think we are there yet.

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