Thursday, June 28, 2012

Overnight and in to the open.

As the market waits nervously for the  EU summit, a source inside the German government said not to expect any decisive actions to be taken at this summit. The market didn't like that headline, however with the EU's track record, it would seem to decisive action would be the very best thing for the EU.

The Spanish 10 year yield has once agin lifted over the 7% level.

The Italian 5 and 10 year bonds were both above 6% just before the Italian auction of 5 and 10 year debt, after the auction the yields came back down. Italy paid 5.84% to borrow €2.5 billion for five year debt, compared with 5.66% at a late-May sale. The yield at auction on the 10-year bond rose to 6.19%, compared to 6.03% a month ago. Italy raised €2.92 billion in 10 Year paper just shy of the €3 billion expected.  The 5 year Bid to Cover was well above this year's average so that went well, but the 10 year's Bid to Cover was well below this year's average and slightly undersubscribed. All in all, the auction was considered a modest success.


This morning we saw a WSJ rumor about Merkel "Blinking" on Shard Debt.


"Germany may be willing to move sooner than expected to accept shared liability of euro-zone debt and would support short-term measures to deal with the acute financing problems facing some of the region's governments, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal ahead of today's European summit.
Mr. Schäuble said Germany could agree to some form of debt mutualization as soon as Berlin is convinced that the path toward establishing centralized European controls over national fiscal policy is irreversible. That could happen before full implementation of treaty changes."
Less than an hour later, the story was denied by Germany. From Reuters:

Germany's finance ministry denied a report on Thursday that suggested it had modified its opposition to euro bonds and reaffirmed its long-held view that they could only come at the end of a process towards fiscal union.

Earlier the Wall Street Journal quoted Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble as saying in an interview published on its website that Germany may be willing to move sooner than expected to accept shared liability of euro zone debt.

Asked to comment on the reported comments, ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus said: "This is not true."

"We've always said that we can talk about shared debt management only at the end of a process toward a genuine fiscal union," he told Reuters.

And just like that, the small market ramp on the rumor was lost.

In the US, the Final Q1 GDP revision came in as expected...

PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR1.9 %1.9 %1.7 % to 2.3 %1.9 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR1.7 %1.7 %1.7 % to 1.9 %2.0 %

Also Initial Claims...
Released On 6/28/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk6/23, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level387 K385 K378 K to 390 K386 K
4-week Moving Average - Level386.25 K386.75 K
New Claims - Change-2 K-6 K
This came in close, but last week's report was revised higher to 392k as usual, just so the Financial media can say Claims beat.

Obviously the biggie 

U.S. SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS CORE OF OBAMA HEALTH CARE


  • OBAMA'S HEALTH-CARE OVERHAUL UPHELD BY U.S. SUPREME COURT
  • 5-4 decisions, with Roberts joining the court's liberals.
  • Court says federal government can’t threaten to withhold money from states that don’t fully comply on Medicaid extension
  • CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS SAYS MANDATE IS NOT A VALID EXERCISE OF CONGRESS' POWER UNDER COMMERCE CLAUSE AND NECESSARY AND PROPER CLAUSE
  • HEALTH LAW'S MEDICAID EXPANSION LIMITED BY U.S. SUPREME COURT -RTRS
  • ROBERTS, JOINED BY TWO JUSTICES, SAYS MEDICAID EXPANSION VIOLATES CONSTITUTION -RTRS
  • FOUR JUSTICES DISSENT, SAYING THE PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT GOES BEYOND -RTRSCONGRESSIONAL POWERS UNDER CONSTITUTION -RTRS
  • ScotusBlog conclusion: So the mandate is constitutional
  • The bottom line: the entire ACA is upheld, with the exception that the federal government's power to terminate states' Medicaid funds is narrowly read
  • The ACA is upheld as a tax, not a penalty

As for ES overnight...

 ES went negative in to the European opening


Here's ES in to the US open,

Thus far pretty much what was expected yesterday.

More coming...


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