Friday, June 15, 2012

Quick Market Overview...

 First the intraday chart-the DIA 1 min never looked that bad to start with, pretty much in line all day

 The 3 min chart opened negative and kind of drifted around until 1 pm when more stories about rate cuts started coming out, you can see the improvement since 1 p.m, that's pretty much the central theme of today.

 The IWM 1 min looked the worst on the 1 min, it opened negative, it headed lower right in to 1 p.m. when it started improving.

 The QQQ 3 min opened negative, didn't do much, then at 1 pm again we see improvement.

 The same for the SPY, negative in the morning, the story about the ECB rate cut comes out around 1 p.m. and improvement.

Lets not forget the area we have been watching for a breakout above in the Euro, this is the level in which shorts are getting nervous and the level which a short squeeze becomes much more likely, it almost looks like we were seeing some of that in today's afternoon action in stocks.

 The area in the Euro that we've been watching since the start of June, finally broken and as of now, looking like a solid break.

 Intraday, can you guess what time that move above resistance at the green arrow occurred? If you said 1 p.m., around the time the ECB dovish comments came out, you'd be correct.

The SPY intraday vs the Euro, at 1 p.m. there's a little volume spike. The Euro had a bit more momentum than the SPY as it seems the SPY was trying to resist on an op-ex pin , which by the way we closed at $134.10, a few cents off the high end of the pin guestimate.

 And now it seems to be up to the voters of Greece, however, the charts that have had me interested and the reason I picked up leveraged longs, are these below, all suggesting we are going to see some upside/short squeeze on a counter trend move that could be quite impressive. When we see these develop we can only guess as to why, in retrospect, I'm guessing that there have been talks and plans between the Central banks with regard to the outcome of the Greek elections, this of course would be insider information Wall St. would be privy to (you may have seen the story today about the GS trader found guilty of insider trading-it's kind of a laugh as it happens everyday, but I suppose they need to look like they are doing their job every once in a while).

 SPY 60 min leading positive, especially in the consolidation of the last 7 days.

 The same in the DIA

 The same in the QQQ

And the IWM.

Lets not forget about these two charts...
 The Euro leading positive divergence and the $USD leading negative divergence. Back at the end of May there didn't seem to be any good reason for the Euro to rally, 3C was telling us something different, we may not have known why, but as I mention from time to time, when in doubt, check the longer term charts; they gave the signal while the Euro was still down and the Euro has thus far done what 3C has been telling us to expect.

We'll see what Greece brings...

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